Case Studies

Background: Private equity acquiring a manufacturing exporter in Southeast Asia.
Challenge: Validate $50M revenue and customer quality under uncertain political risk.
Approach: Trade data verification → PD/LGD modelling → Stress test for key buyer countries → Pricing recommendation for SPA adjustments.
Result: Deal proceeded with a 5% valuation discount, lender approved acquisition financing within 3 weeks.

Background: Mid-sized electronics exporter in Eastern Europe preparing for a London Stock Exchange IPO.
Challenge: Investment bank needed to validate the authenticity of top-line revenue and demonstrate customer diversification to meet investor disclosure standards.
Approach: Aggregated 36 months of customs trade flow data → Matched invoices to shipment records → Modelled customer concentration and churn risk → Produced industry and country risk heatmaps for inclusion in the Confidential Information Memorandum (CIM).
Result: Delivered verifiable trade and receivables data package used in the IPO prospectus. Investor roadshow feedback highlighted strong customer diversification, contributing to successful IPO at 12% above initial price range.

Background: Global logistics group acquiring a freight-forwarding company with operations across Africa and the Middle East.
Challenge: Buyer needed to assess the counterparty risk of over 500 active clients, many in higher-risk jurisdictions, and estimate potential impact on post-acquisition working capital.
Approach: Conducted batch buyer scoring using PD and LGD models → Analysed DSO trends and payment curves by country → Stress-tested scenarios for FX volatility and sovereign risk → Recommended adjusted earn-out structure linked to receivables performance.
Result: Acquisition proceeded with an earn-out clause protecting against payment defaults. Buyer avoided potential $3.5M in write-offs during first year post-acquisition.

Background: Consortium of international banks considering a $120M syndicated loan to a South American commodity exporter.
Challenge: Lenders required an independent assessment of buyer credit quality, concentration risk, and the resilience of receivables under commodity price fluctuations.
Approach: Verified trade volumes and buyer relationships through customs and port data → Applied PD/LGD models to top 100 buyers → Simulated payment delays under low-price commodity scenarios → Recommended tiered lending limits by buyer risk category and geographic exposure.
Result: Loan approved with a structured tranche system, where higher-risk buyers were capped at 60% of proposed limits. Reduced projected default exposure by 18% without lowering total facility size.